Indian Economy Holds out Despite Global Uncertainty
The big story of the last decade for India has been its arrival on the global scene and there was no looking back from the first years of the first decade of the 21st Century. The Economic Survey 2011-12 tabled by the Finance Minister, Shri Pranab Mukherjee in the Lok Sabha today outlined the state of global economy and India ’s position therein. The Survey has charted out not only the new opportunities but also the new challenges and responsibilities that India faces in the current global economic scenario.
The Survey observes that, as per the IMF, at a growth rate of 7 per cent,
The Economic Survey states that after the opening of the economy in the early 1990s,
Given its size and its profile in the global economy, India will inevitably need to play an active role at global level, not just in the efforts towards resolving the current crisis but also in influencing the goals for the global economy on overarching macroeconomic issues such as trade, capital flows, financial regulation, climate change and governance of global financial institutions.
Reflecting upon the state of global economy, the Economy Survey states that there is an apprehension that the process of global economic recovery that began after the financial crisis of 2008 is beginning to stall and the sovereign debt crisis in the Euro zone area may persist for a while. The lower global growth forecast by the IMF for most countries in 2012 reflects the repeated bouts of uncertainty. In the medium term, challenges for the global economy continue to emanate from the way the Euro zone crisis is addressed. The high deficits and debts in
Volatility in capital flows resulting from the spillover affects of monetary policy choices and other uncertainties in the advanced financial markets further impacted exchange rates and made the task of macro-economic management difficult in many emerging economies. This has brought out a new dimension of globalization in the post-financial crisis world, where easy monetary policy in one set of countries may result in inflation elsewhere due to cross-border capital flows.
The changes in composition of the global economy suggest a perceptible shift in the global balance of output of goods, especially manufacturing. While services, in particular financial services, continue to be largely concentrated in advanced economies, a large share in world population, coupled with higher growth, implies that the EMEs (Emerging Market Economies) and developing countries will increasingly account for incremental growth in the global market for goods and services. Even if the emerging economies, including
While stating that
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