Auto Industry – India in
Changing World Order
Change is the only universal
constant. This is also
quite evident in the global automotive industry and can be seen with regards to
the products, consumer choice, markets, technology and the competitive paradigms
that govern this sector. The
changing world order in the automotive space can be categorized around a few
important broad themes – “emergence of new markets and opportunities”,
“enhanced concerns over sustainable growth”, “the competitive paradigms of the
future”.
The recent past has witnessed the
emergence and reinforcement of new automotive markets and centers of global
automotive growth. The
automotive growth in the past few years has been driven largely by emerging
markets;China and India in particular. This not only due to the higher rate
of economic growth seen in these economies but also coincides with their
demographic profiles and lower existing vehicle penetration levels. These very factors lead most analysts
to predict the shift in automotive equilibrium to the east. This opens up tremendous opportunities
for Global OEMs and also for the local automotive industry in these
countries. The competitive
environment in these new fast growing economies will therefore further intensify
requiring the companies to remain on a path of continuous improvement.
While continued high rate of growth of
the Indian automotive sector is great news for our economy, however, such high
levels of growth will also throw up the challenges associated with fast
depletion of traditional energy sources, rising energy costs, ever increasing
oil import bill and the impact of mobility on the environment. Studies by
International Energy Agency (IEA) indicate that three fourth of the projected
increase in oil demand (from 2006-2020) will be from the transportation sector
and that China and India will account for forty five percent of
this increased demand. This
coupled by the fact that India ’s
dependence on fossil fuel imports is likely to increase sharply in the future,
makes it essential to take steps immediately for mitigating this trend. While traditional measures such as
increasing the fuel efficiency of vehicles, encouraging modal shift to public
mass transportation, better infrastructure and urban planning, use of
technology will certainly help improve the situation. However, these interventions can at
best only provide incremental improvements as the strong sectoral dependence on
oil will still remain. Further,
with the large future demand for mobility these measures alone will not be
enough. As such
transformational change is required to disrupt the present status quo by
addressing the fundamental issue of reducing sectoral dependence on oil.
The concerns around environmental
impact of transportation are encouraging Governments and Industry alike to make
huge investments in future, cleaner technologies. The future sustainable competitive
advantage in the industry will therefore be around environmentally sustainable
products, high end technologies and innovation. Cost advantage can at best supplement
competitive positioning. Challenges
of today cannot be met with yesterday’s tools. Therefore, it is essential
that Indian companies position their future strategies around these changing
realities.
Faster adoption of full range of
electric vehicles, including hybrids, is the right future direction for the
country and the automotive industry for meeting the challenges of the
future. For this the
Government had in 2011 approved the National Mission for Electric Mobility
(NMEM) which has National energy security and growth of domestic manufacturing
capabilities in full range of electric vehicle technologies as its two
inter-related key end objectives. National
Electric Mobility Mission Plan (NEMMP) 2020 was approved on 29 August, 2012.
The NEMMP 2020, which is the mission
document for NMEM, lays the vision, sets the targets and provides the roadmap
for achieving significant penetration of efficient and environmentally friendly
electric vehicle (including hybrids) technologies in India by 2020, thereby helping to achieve
the NMEM objectives. NEMMP-2020 implementation will involve finanlistion and
roll out of comprehensive array of interventions schemes and projects involving
all stakeholders, both in and out of the Government.
The NEMMP 2020 targets have been
arrived at through an in-depth primary data based study conducted jointly by
the Government and the Industry which indicates that high latent demand for
environmentally friendly electric vehicle technologies exists in the
country. It is believed
that 6-7 million units of new vehicle sales of full range of electric vehicles,
along with resultant liquid fuel savings of 2.2-2.5 million tonnes can be
achieved in 2020. However,
strong upfront and continued support by Government would be essential to
realize this demand especially through demand support measures that facilitate
faster consumer acceptance of these expensive newer technologies. In addition, Government will also need
to facilitate automotive R&D and put in place charging
infrastructure. It is
estimated that for this the Government will need to provide support to the tune
of Rs. 13000 – Rs. 14000 crore over the next 5-6 years. The industry will also need to match
this with investments for developing the products and creating the
manufacturing eco-system. Projections
also indicate that the savings from the decrease in liquid fossil fuel
consumption as a result of shift to electric mobility alone more than will
offset the support provided thereby making this a highly economically viable
proposition.
As such, the NMEM promises to be
amongst the most significant interventions of the Government for the automotive
sector that has the potential to change the automotive paradigm of the future
through lessening the dependence of the sector to single source of primary
energy and paving the way for the ultimate objective of renewable energy
generation powering the transportation sector of the future. This intervention will also help
encourage the Indian Industry to shift to newer, cleaner technologies so that
it builds its future competitive advantage around environmentally sustainable
products, high end technologies, innovation and knowledge.
One of the key factors that have been
instrumental in shaping the successes seen in the Indian automotive industry so
far has been the exemplary Industry – Government partnership, clarity and joint
ownership of the future vision through Automotive Mission Plan (AMP)
2006-16. The NEMMP 2020
also provides a shared vision and a common future roadmap for the National
Mission for Electric Mobility for all the stakeholders, on the lines of the AMP
2006-16. The strength of
this collaborative working should be further leveraged by actively involving
all Government Ministries, departments related to automotive sector, the
industry and the automotive research agencies.
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