Addressing Holistically
Various Aspects Relating to Earth
Processes – ESSO
The
Earth System Science Organization (ESSO) operates as an executive arm of the
Ministry of Earth Sciences for it policies and programmes.
It has four major branches of earth sciences - Ocean Science & Technology
Services; Atmospheric and Climate Science Services; Geoscience and Technology; and Polar Science and Cryosphere.
The sole purpose of the endeavor was to address holistically various aspects
relating to earth processes for understanding the variability of earth system
and for improving forecast of the weather, climate and
hazards.
The ESSO primarily aimed to develop and improve capability to a wide range
of forecasts, on weather, climate and hazard related phenomena for societal,
economic and environmental benefits including addressing aspects relating to
climate change science, climate services and integrated Himalayan meteorology.
Over 25 sectors of both public and private directly and indirectly, are the stakeholders
of the various services being rendered by the ministry, in addition to general
public. This ESSO is
also responsible for development of technology towards the exploration and
exploitation of marine resources in a sustainable way for the socio-economic
benefit of the society by taking into account the global developments in the
field of marine environment.
Weather and Climate Forecasts
Weather and climate forecasts, including
those of extreme events, are becoming increasingly important for the economic
and societal benefits. Earth System Science Organization provides weather and
climate forecasts on various spatial and time scales (nowcasting to climate) to different users in the
country. This include nowcasting (up to six hours) for aviation and
disaster management, short to medium range forecasts ( up to 7 days) for
agricultural, water resources, insurance, public safety, tourism, water
resources and power management, disaster management etc, seasonal forecasts for
economic planning, agricultural, water resources and power management, and
climate change scenarios for long-term
planning and mitigation and adaptation strategies.
Operational short to medium range
forecasts are now prepared using the state -of-the-art numerical weather
prediction models at a resolution of 22 km from 100 km resolution. This is a
major improvement. This
improvement in capability was possible due to the upgradation of High Performance Computing (HPC)
facility at the ESSO institutions.
The quantitative forecasts of weather
elements and forecast lead time by one day have improved over for short to
medium range weather forecasts. . This improvement is mainly attributed to use
of high resolution numerical models with improved physics, and assimilation of
non-conventional data from Doppler weather radars, satellite radiance and many
satellite derived data products like winds, temperature and water vapour profiles.
Verification of weather forecasts suggests that the skill in short range
weather forecast in the country is at par with the skill of other developed
countries like USA and UK
Seasonal forecasts are traditionally
prepared using statistical models, but with limited success of about 60%. In
spite of better understanding of monsoon variability and consistent efforts to
improve statistical models, the skill of monsoon seasonal forecast has not
improved over the years. To meet the user demands of more accurate seasonal
forecasts at much smaller spatial scale, the
use of coupled atmosphere-ocean models, has been initiated.
With the objective to implement a
state-of-the-art dynamical forecasting system for short range to seasonal
forecasts, ESSO recently launched the Monsoon Mission with a budget provision
of Rs 400.0 crores.
Importantly, it is aimed at providing a seamless approach to predicting monsoon
variations for lead times extending from short range to seasonal. The mission
has initiated national and international collaboration in order to improve the
models specifically for monsoon forecasting and especially targeting the key
systematic errors which are limiting the predictive capability of dynamical
models. A high priority has been
accorded to the work on extended range forecasting, which has great potential
for the agricultural sector. With the Monsoon Mission, a marked improvement in
the accuracy of weather and climate forecasts is expected in next 5 years.
Improvement of model physics like convection, clouds, land surface process,
ocean coupling and development of advanced data assimilation methods are some
of priority research areas under the Monsoon Mission.
Prediction of extreme weather events like
intense precipitation, strong winds, etc is also an important research priority.
ESSO is making efforts to establish a framework for nowcasting (up to six hours in advance) based on
numerical models and satellite and Doppler weather radar data. With the
numerical models, an advance prediction (2-3 days in advance) of extreme
weather events may be possible, at least in a probabilistic sense. For this,
use of high resolution models with advanced data assimilation is required but
with many ensembles to take care of the uncertainties in initial conditions.
Such an ensemble forecasting system is already implemented and is now being
evaluated.
ESSO is at a threshold for a quantum jump
in achieving significant improvement in weather and climate forecasts and thus
helping the development of the nation. To meet these challenges, adequate investment
will be made in human resource development, high performance computing and
improving the observational network.
Ocean Mineral Resources
Manganese nodules are potential ocean mineral resources found on the seabed
at the depth of 4000 to 6000 m. These manganese nodules are small, dark-brown
colored and lightly flattened, 5 to 10 cm in diameter, They host strategic minerals such as
Copper, Nickel and Cobalt as well as Molybdenum, Vanadium, Titanium, Platinum,
Rhodium, etc. in small quantities. India India ’s persistent
endeavors, the pioneer investor status has been acceded primarily by allotment
of a site in the Central
Indian Ocean Basin
As a part of survey activity, a detailed multibeam bathymetry survey has been completed
for 75,000 sq. km. area to map the seabed topography. A comprehensive resource
analysis has been carried out. The estimated potential is found to be about 380 Million Metric Tonnes (MMT). The important metal resources
estimated as: Manganese – 92.59 MMT, Nickel – 4.70 MMT, Copper – 4.29 MMT and
Cobalt – 0.55 MMT. Besides, an area of ~7860 km2 has been identified as First
Generation Mine Site (FGM) which has the best abundance and grade.
The important prerequisites for mining
these resources in the identified area are development of technology and
conducting environmental impact assessment. Under technology development for
harnessing the resources, a set of deep sea mining equipments have been
developed indigenously. These include soil-tester, Remotely Operable
Submersible (ROSUB) and crusher. Remotely
Operable Submersible (ROSUB) and soil tester were tested successfully at depths
beyond 5000 m respectively.
The crusher was tested at 500 m depth.
It is necessary to study impact of mining
on the deep sea environment. A 3-dimentional model for sediment dispersion has
been developed. The Model is capable of predicting suspended and bed load
sediment movement for any geographical locations including deep sea sediment
sludge disposal into sea water, dispersion of plume and settling.
Towards extraction of minerals from the
nodules, the necessary metallurgical technology has been developed. The most promising process route was
tested on the semi-continuous demonstration pilot plant. The pilot plant has
exceeded the overall metal extraction efficiency higher than the achieved
efficiency at laboratory scale.
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