UPSC Exam-Indian Forest Services(IFoS) Exam 2013-Main Examination Syllabus-Statistics-Paper 2

UPSC Exam-Indian Forest Services(IFoS) Exam 2013-Main Examination Syllabus-Statistics-Paper 2

Statistics

Paper-II

I. Industrial Statistics

Process and product control, general theory of control charts, different types of control charts for variables and attributes, X, R, s, p, np and c charts, cumulative sum chart, Vmask, single, double, multiple and sequential sampling plans for attributes, OC, ASN, AOQ and ATI curves, concepts of producer’s and consumer’s risks, AQL, LTPD and AOQL, sampling plans for variables, use of Dodge-Romig and Military Standard tables. Concepts of reliability, maintainability and availability, reliability of series and parallel systems and other simple configurations, renewal density and renewal function, survival models (exponential), Weibull, lognormal, Rayleigh, and bath-tub), different types of redundancy and use of redundancy in reliability improvement, problems in life-testing, censored and truncated experiments for exponential models.

II. Optimization Techniques

Different, types of models in Operational Research, their construction and general methods of solution, simulation and Monte-Carlo methods, the structure and formulation of linear programming (LP) problem, simple LP model and its graphical solution, the simplex procedure, the two-phase method and the M-technique withartificial variables, the duality theory of LP and its economic interpretation, sensitivity analysis, transportation and assignment problems, rectangular games, two-person zerosum games, methods of solution (graphical and algerbraic). Replacement of failing or deteriorating items, group and individual replacement policies, concept of scientific inventory management and analytical structure of inventory problems, simple models with deterministic and stochastic demand with and without lead time, storage models with particular reference to dam type. Homogeneous discrete-time Markov chains, transition probability matrix, classification of states and ergodic theorems, homogeneous continous-time Markov chains, Poisson process, elements of queueing theory, M/M/1, M/M/K, G/M/1 and M/G/1 queues. Solution of statistical problems on computers using well known statistical software packages like SPSS.

III. Quantitative Economics and Official Statistics

Determination of trend, seasonal and cyclical components, Box-Jenkins method, tests for stationery of series, ARIMA models and determination of orders of autoregressive and moving average components, forecasting. Commonly used index numbers-Laspeyre's, Paashe's and Fisher's ideal index numbers, chain-base index number uses and limitations of index numbers, index number of wholesale prices, consumer price index number, index numbers of agricultural and industrial production, tests, for mdex numbers lve proportonality test, time-reversal test, factor-reversal test, circular test and dimensional invariance test. General linear model, ordinary least squares and generalised least squires methods of estimation, problem of multicollineaity, consequences and solutions of multicollinearity, autocorrelation and its consequences, heteroscedasticity of disturbances and its testing, test for independence of disturbances, Zellner's seemingly unrelated regression equation model and its estimation, concept of structure and model for simultaneous equations, problem of identification-rank and order conditions ofidentifiability, two-stage least squares method of estimation. Present official statistical system in India relating to population, agriculture, industrial production, trade and prices, methods of collection of official statistics, their reliability and limitation and the principal publications containing such statistics, various official agencies responsible for data collection and their main functions.

IV. Demography and Psychometry

Demographic data from census, registration, NSS and other surveys, and their limitation and uses, definition, construction and uses of vital rates and ratios, measures of fertility, reproduction rates, morbidity rate, standardized death rate, complete and abridged life tables, construction of life tables from vital statistics and census returns, uses of life tables, logistic and other population growth curves, fitting a logistic curve, population projection, stable population theory, uses of stable population and quasistable population techniques in estimation of demographic parameters, morbidity and its measurement, standard classification by cause of death, health surveys and use of hospital statistics. Methods of standardisation of scales and tests, Z-scores, standard scores, T-scores, percentile scores, intelligence quotient and its measurement and uses, validity of test scores and its determination, use of factor analysis and path analysis in psychometry.